Modelos de Propagação de Fogos Florestais: Estado-da-Arte para Utilizadores

Parte I: Introdução e Modelos Locais

 

Jorge C. S. André ¹*, Domingos X. Viegas**

*Professor Auxiliar

**Professor Catedrático

Universidade Coimbra. Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica, Pinhal de Marrocos, 3030 COIMBRA

 

Sumário. Este artigo, que pela sua extensão se encontra subdividido em duas partes, dirige-se prioritariamente a utilizadores de modelos de propagação de fogos florestais. Visa proporcionar-lhes uma visão panorâmica actualizada do estado dos conhecimentos nesta área, propondo uma classificação geral para os modelos existentes e expondo, em termos simples, para alguns modelos ilustrativos de cada classe: os princípios físicos e a estratégia de modelação que lhes estão subjacentes; os seus parâmetros de entrada e saída; as suas limitações de aplicação, a fiabilidade das suas previsões e as suas perspectivas de desenvolvimento futuro. Neste artigo, após a introdução segue-se uma secção dedicada aos modelos que fazem apenas previsões para um pequeno sector da frente de fogo, subdivididos em modelos: empíricos, de campo e laboratoriais; físicos incompletos; e físicos completos. Dentro dos modelos empírico-laboratoriais, o modelo de Rothermel é apresentado com particular detalhe.

Palavras-chave: modelos empíricos; modelos físicos; modelos locais; modelo de Rothermel.

 

Abstract. This paper, which is subdivided into two parts for its extension, is aimed at users of forest fire propagation models. The purpose is to afford a broad view of the state-of-the-art in this domain, by proposing a general classification for the existing models and by explaining, in simple terms, for typical models in each class: the underlying physical principles and modelling strategy; the input and output parameters; the limits of application, the reliability of the predictions and the perspectives of future development. In this paper, after the introduction, another section is devoted to models that exclusively predict the behaviour of a small part of the fire front line, subdivided into the following classes: empirical, based on field and/or laboratory experiments; physical incomplete; and physical complete. Within the class of laboratory empirical models, Rothermel model is presented in particular detail.

Key words: empirical models; physical models; local models; Rothermel model.

 

Résumé. Cet article, qui est sous divisé en deux parties à cause de son extension, est dirigé prioritairement aux utilisateurs des modèles de propagations des feux de forêts. Il s'agit de leur proportionner une vision panoramique de l'état présent des connaissances dans ce domaine en proposant une classification générale pour les modèles existants et en présentant, dans des termes simples, pour quelques modèles illustratifs de chaque classe: les principes physiques et la stratégie de modélisation sur lesquelles ils se basent; les paramètres d'entrée et de sortie; les limites d'application, la fiabilité de prédiction et les perspectives de développement futur. Après la introduction, la section suivante est dédiée aux modèles des prédiction du comportement d'un seul petit morceau du front du feu, sous-divisé en modèles: empi-riques, de champ et de laboratoire; physiques incomplets; et physiques complets. Dans la classe des modèles empiriques de laboratoire, le modèle de Rothermel est particulièrement détaillé.

Mots-clés: modèles empiriques; modèles physiques; modèles locaux; modèle de Rothermel.

 

 

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Entregue para publicação em Maio de 2001

Aceite para publicação em Setembro de 2001

 

¹1º Autor E-mail: jorge.andre@dem.uc.pt