As eleições presidenciais em sistemas semipresidenciais: participação eleitoral e punição dos governos

Braulio Gómez Fortes*

Pedro Magalhães**

Este artigo testa a hipótese de que as eleições presidenciais em sistemas semipresidenciais sejam eleições de «segunda ordem», ou seja, eleições, por um lado, com menor saliência para os eleitores e menor participação eleitoral e, por outro, onde os grandes partidos – especialmente os que controlam o governo — tendem a ser punidos eleitoralmente. Esta hipótese é testada recorrendo a dados eleitorais a nível agregado recolhidos em todas as eleições ocorridas em democracias semipresidenciais desde 1945. Conclui-se que a existência de padrões de «segunda ordem» nestas eleições é apenas parcial e depende, para além disso, dos poderes ao dispor dos presidentes, lançando dúvidas sobre a utilidade substantiva da categorização genérica de determinados sistemas de governo como sendo «semipresidenciais», pelo menos no que respeita aos padrões de comportamento eleitoral neles detectáveis.

Palavras-chave: Eleições presidenciais, Sistemas semipresidenciais, Participação eleitoral

L’électoralisme dans les municipalités portugaises

Cet article analyse l’existence de cycles politico-économiques dans les municipalités du continent portugais au cours de la période 1979-2001. Les résultats empiriques révèlent clairement un comportement électoraliste par les élus locaux qui, les années d’élections, augmentent les déficits et les dépenses municipales, en faisant croître l’emploi municipal. Dans ces dépenses, les plus fortes augmentations apparaissent dans les postes davantage en vue par l’électorat, tels que Viaducs, voirie et travaux complémentaires et Chemins ruraux. Dans la mesure où l’électoralisme des élus génère des inefficiences dans l’allocation des ressources, nous considérons que l’imposition de règles limitant la gestion discrétionnaire des finances locales s’avère bénéfique.

Presidential elections in semi-presidential systems: electoral participation and punishing governments

This article tests the hypothesis that presidential elections in semipresidential systems are second-tier elections, in other words elections which, on the one hand, are less important to voters and have lower turnouts and, on the other hand, in which the major parties — especially those in power — tend to be punished in terms of voteshare. This hypothesis is tested through the use of overall election data from all the elections which have taken place in semi-presidential democracies since 1945. The article concludes that only partial «second-tier» patterns are to be found in these elections and that their results depend, in addition, on what powers are available to the president, thereby casting doubt on the substantive usefulness of the general description of certain systems of government as «semi-presidential», at least as far as detectable patterns of voter behaviour are concerned.

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* Instituto de Estudios Sociales de Andalucia.

** Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa.