Eleições de segunda ordem e ciclos eleitorais no Portugal democrático, 1975-2004

André Freire*

Esta investigação explora as relações entre o comportamento eleitoral dos portugueses nas eleições legislativas, locais e europeias no período de 1975-2004. Examina-se a evolução do sistema partidário e dos níveis agregados de volatilidade em diferentes tipos de eleições. A nível individual, comparam-se as determinantes sociais e políticas das opções partidárias em diferentes tipos de eleições. Testamos as teorias sobre ciclos eleitorais comparando os resultados eleitorais agregados de diferentes tipos de eleições em períodos diversos do ciclo eleitoral e utilizando como ponto de partida os vencedores de cada uma das eleições legislativas precedentes. A principal conclusão é que as relações entre as eleições de segunda ordem e de primeira ordem reflectem não só os efeitos a curto prazo, mas também os efeitos a longo prazo.

Palavras-chave: Eleições legislativas Portugal - 1975-2004, Sistema político, Portugal, Sistemas eleitorais, Sistemas partidários

Elections de second ordre et cycles électoraux dans le Portugal démocratique, 1975-2004

Cette recherche explore les rapports entre le comportement électoral des portugais aux élections législatives, municipales et européennes au cours de la période 1975-2004. Elle examine l’évolution du système partisan et des niveaux agrégés de volatilité dans différents types d’élections. Elle compare, au niveau individuel, les déterminantes sociales et politiques des options partisanes dans ces élections. Nous avons testé les théories sur les cycles électoraux, en comparant les résultats électoraux agrégés des différents types d’élections dans des périodes diverses du cycle électoral, et en utilisant comme point de départ les vainqueurs de chaque élection législative précédente. La principale conclusion tirée est que les rapports entre les élections de second ordre et de premier ordre reflètent non seulement les effets à court terme, mais aussi les effets à long terme.

Second-tier elections and eectoral districts in democratic Portugal, 1975-2004

This research explores the relationships between the electoral behaviour of the Portuguese in parliamentary, local and European elections in the period from 1975 to 2004. It looks at the development of the party system and at aggregate volatility levels in different types of election. For individual voters it compares the social and political factors affecting voter choice of party in different types of election. We tested theories on election cycles by comparing the overall electoral results of different types of election at different periods of the election cycle, taking as our point of departure the winners of each of the preceding parliamentary elections. The main conclusion is that the relationships between second-tier and first-tier elections reflect not only short-term effects, but also long-term ones.

Texto completo disponível apenas em PDF.

Full text only available in PDF format.

Bibliografia

Anderson, C., e Ward, D. (1996): «Barometer elections in comparative perspective», in Electoral Studies, 15 (4), pp. 447-460.         [ Links ]

Barreto, António (ed.) (2000), A Situação Social em Portugal 1960-1999, vol. II, Indicadores Sociais em Portugal e na União Europeia, Lisboa, Imprensa de Ciências Sociais.

Bartolini, S., e Mair, P. (1990), Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates, 1885-1985, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Bruneau, T. (ed.) (1997), Political Parties and Democracy in Portugal: Organizations, Elections, and Public Opinion, Boulder/Colorado, Westview Press.

Bruneau, T., et al. (2001), «Democracy, Southern European style», in N. Diamandouros e R. Gunther (eds.), Parties, Politics, and Democracy in New Southern Europe, Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 16-83.

Campbell, A. (1960), «Surge and decline: a study of electoral change», in Public Opinion Quarterly, 24, pp. 397-418.

Campbell, J. E. (1993), «Surge and decline: the national evidence», in R. G. Niemi e H. Weisberg (eds.), Controversies in Voting Behavior, Washington, Congressional Quarterly Press, pp. 222-240.

Duverger, M. (1980), «A new political system model: semi-presidential government», in A. Lijphart (ed.), Parliamentary versus Presidential Government, Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 142-149.

Eijk, C. van der, e Franklin, M. (1996a), «The research: studying the elections of 1989 and 1994», in C. van der Eijk e M. Franklin (eds.), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union, Ann Arbor/Michigan, Michigan University Press, pp. 391-408.

Eijk, C. van der, e Franklin, M. (1996b), «Coda: what we have learned about voting and elections», in C. van der Eijk e M. Franklin (eds.), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union, Ann Arbor/Michigan, Michigan University Press, pp. 391-408.

Eijk, C. van der, e Franklin, M. (eds.) (1996c), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union, Ann Arbor/Michigan, Michigan University Press.

Eijk, C. van der, Franklin, M., e Oppenhuis, E. (1996), «The strategic context: party choice», in C. van der Eijk e M. Franklin (eds.), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union, Ann Arbor/Michigan, Michigan University Press, pp. 332-365.

Freire, A. (2001), «Presidentes e eleições presidenciais no Portugal democrático», in António Costa Pinto (ed.), Os Presidentes da República Portuguesa, Lisboa, Temas & Debates/Círculo de Leitores.

Freire, A. (2004), «Second order elections and electoral cycles in democratic Portugal», in South European Society & Politics, 9 (3), pp. 54-79.

Freire, A., e Baum, M. (2002), Election Order and Electoral Cycles in Democratic Portugal, 1975-2002, comunicação apresentada no 98.º Encontro Anual da American Political Science Association (APSA), Boston/MA, EUA, http://apsaproceedings.cup.org/Site/abstracts/014/014004BaumMichae.htm

Freire, A., e Magalhães, P. (2002), A Abstenção Eleitoral em Portugal, Lisboa, Imprensa de Ciências Sociais.

Freire, A., et al. (2003), As Eleições Legislativas de 2002: Inquérito Pós-Eleitoral — Base de Dados, Lisboa, Imprensa de Ciências Sociais.

Heath, A., et al. (1991), Understanding Political Change: The British Voter 1964-1987, Oxford, Pergamon Press.

Laakso, M., e Taagepera, R. (1979), «Effective number of parties: a measure with application to West Europe», in Comparative Political Studies, 12 (1), pp. 3-27.

Lobo, M. C. (2003), «Legitimizing the EU? Elections to the European Parliament in Portugal, 1987-1999», in A. C. Pinto (ed.), Contemporary Portugal: Politics, Society and Culture, Nova Iorque, Columbia University Press, pp. 203-226.

Lopes, F. Farelo, e Freire, A. (2002), Partidos Políticos e Sistemas Eleitorais. Uma Introdução, Lisboa, Celta.

Marsh, M., (1998), «Testing the second-order election model after four European elections», in British Journal of Political Science, 28, pp. 591-607.

Marsh, M., e Franklin, M. (1996), «The foundations: unanswered questions from the study of European elections, 1979-1994», in C. van der Eijk e M. Franklin (eds.), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union, Ann Arbor/Michigan, Michigan University Press, pp. 11-33.

Norris, P. (1997), «Second-order elections revisited», in European Journal of Political Research, 31 (1-2), pp. 109-114.

Oppenhuis, E., Eijk, C. van der, e Franklin, M. (1996), «The party context: outcomes», in C. van der Eijk e M. Franklin (eds.), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union, Ann Arbor/Michigan, Michigan University Press, pp. 287-305.

Reif, K. (1985a), «National electoral cycles and European elections», in Electoral Studies, 3 (3), pp. 244-255.

Reif, K. (1985b), «Ten second-order elections», in K. Reif (ed.), Ten European Elections, Gower, Aldershot, pp. 1-36.

Reif, K. (1997), «European elections as member state second-order elections revisited», in European Journal of Political Research, 31 (1-2), pp. 115-124.

Reif, K., e Schmitt, H. (1980), «Nine second-order national elections: a conceptual framework for the analysis of european election results», in European Journal of Political Research, 8 (1), pp. 3-44.

Shugart, M., e Carey, J. (1992), Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Tufte, E. (1975), «Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections», in American Political Science Review, 69 (3), pp. 812-826.

* Departamento de Sociologia do Instituto Superior de Ciências do Trabalho e da Empresa.