Abstract

PEREIRA, José Manuel; GOMEZ, Fernando Díaz  and  LOPEZ, Manuel Rodríguez. Aplicação da Teoria dos Rough Sets na Previsão do Fracasso Empresarial. Tékhne [online]. 2008, n.10, pp.199-220. ISSN 1645-9911.

Prediction of corporate bankruptcy is a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. In the literature of the specialty we can found a lot of works that apply a wide variety of techniques to analyze this problem. In this work we present a method relatively recent of evaluation of the risk of business failure with base of Rough Sets theory. This theory allows obtaining a group of condition attributes that assure an acceptable level of classification of the analyzed companies, allowing with that to obtain rules to elaborate a decision making process system. For the selection of the subset of the relevant attributes was used the minimum description length principle. For the empiric application we have used a sample of Portuguese companies of mixed industries. The overall predictive accuracy of the model for one, two, and three years before bankruptcy was 97,43%, 93,15% and 91,69%, respectively.    

Keywords : Bankruptcy Prediction; Financial Distress; Rough Sets; Financial ratios.

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