Resumo

DINIZ, Tiago; AMARAL, Hudson  e  FERREIRA, Bruno. Sovereign rating evaluation: the impact of economic, political and social variables. Economia Global e Gestão [online]. 2012, vol.17, n.3, pp.09-31. ISSN 0873-7444.

The analysis of the impact of economic, political and social variables in the classifications of sovereign rating made by Standard & Poor's from 2005 to 2009 for 88 countries was the object of this paper. The use of different statistical techniques, in which stand Multiple Linear Regression, the General Model for Panel Data and the Panel with Fixed Effect on Countries, allowed identifying important aspects for explanation of sovereign rating. The results show that countries with lower inflation rates, bigger GDP growth rates, reduced level of indebtedness in relation to the GDP, and where the governments are more effective in public policies management tend to present better score of rating. Other factors that demonstrated significant influence in the evaluations of sovereign rating were the degree of economic development and the geographic localization of the countries. The absence of significant relation between the educational level and the sovereign rating was also observed.

Palavras-chave : Sovereign Rating; Rating Agencies; Economic; Political and Social Variables.

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