Abstract

NOGUEIRA, António et al. Time-trends in human immunodeficiency virus infection in Portugal: 1984-2013. Arq Med [online]. 2015, vol.29, n.6, pp.148-152. ISSN 2183-2447.

The aim of this study was to evaluate time-trends of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Portugal (1984-2013). Incidence (1984-2013), prevalence and mortality rates due to HIV (1988-2013) were computed. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to estimate annual percent changes (APC) and respective 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for those parameters and to identify years (joinpoints) in which significant changes in time-trends occurred. Incidence rate increased until 1999 (men) and 2000 (women); then decreased until 2013, from 47 to 20/100,000 men and from 8 to 15/100,000 women; such decrease became significant since 2003 among men (APC=-3.1%; 95%CI:-4.3%;-1.9%) and 2000 among women (APC=-2.8%; 95%CI:-4.1%;-1.6% before 2010 and APC=-11.3%; 95%CI:-18.5%;-3.6% after 2010). Higher mortality rates occurred in 1996 and then decreased from 19 to 7/100,000 men and from 4 to 2/100,000 women; such decrease was significant since 2003 among men (APC=-7.1%; 95%CI:-8.6%;-5.6%) and 1996 among women (APC=-2.9%; 95%CI:-4.1;-1.7). Prevalence of infected people increased significantly, hitting 0.4% (men) and 0.2% (women) in 2013, but there was a downward trend in APC between joinpoints. Incidence rate described an evident decrease among injecting drug users (IDU) from 17 to 1/100,000 inhabitants during time-period 1997-2013. Among heterosexuals, such rate decreased from 12 to 8/100,000 from 2002 onwards but it steadily increased among men who have sex with men, hitting 8/100,000 in 2011 and then remained almost unchangeable. Portugal presented a favorable scenario concerning HIV infection control mainly due to the decrease in incidence among IDU.

Keywords : HIV infection; incidence; prevalence; time-trends; Portugal.

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