Resumo

CUNHA, M. et al. Early estimate of wine production by means of airborne pollen II- Demarcated region of Dão and Bairrada . Ciência Téc. Vitiv. [online]. 2000, vol.15, n.2, pp.47-63. ISSN 0254-0223.

Aiming to predict the yearly wine production on the Demarcated Region of Bairrada e Dão, we have been monitoring, since 1990, the airborne pollen concentration (CPA) in strategic places within these regions using the “Cour Method” (Cour, 1974). The models developed for both regions assure an ex-ante reliable evaluation of wine production which is essential to support social, technical and economic measures. The use of parametric models to measure temporal flows of pollen emissions allows the definition of a Pollen Regional Index. This index provides the forecasting models with a considerable degree of fitness, due to its accurateness on quantifying the annual amount of pollen emissions. In practice, the adequacy of this methodology depends not only on the use of an accurate aeropalynological technique but also on the integration of agronomic data indispensable for validating the relation between pollen and production. The statistic tests show that, excluding post-blooming problems (10% of the cases), it is possible to explain, approximately four months before harvest, 95 to 99% of the wine production’s variations across years in Bairrada and Dão, respectively. For the years in analysis, the comparison between declared and adjusted regional productions reveals an average spread deviation of 6% in Bairrada and 3% in Dão. Additionally, when the year of 1999 is used for forecasting purposes the average spreads obtained are equal to 4 and

Palavras-chave : Viticulture; Forecast; Climat; Pollen.

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